Stock Market LIVE Updates, Monday, October 14, 2024: Markets in India were likely to open with a slight upside on Monday, as indicated by GIFT Nifty futures, which were trading around 50 points ahead of Nifty futures last close, at 25,073, around 7:45 AM. 
 

Indian stock markets remained in consolidation mode on Friday, with the BSE Sensex closing at 81,381.36, down 230.05 points or 0.28 per cent. The Nifty 50 ended at 24,964.25, a decrease of 34.20 points or 0.14 per cent. 

In the broader markets, both the BSE MidCap and BSE SmallCap indices outperformed the benchmarks, each gaining 0.44 per cent.

Sector-wise, the Nifty Pharma index rose by 1.2 per cent, followed by the Nifty Metal index, which was up 0.94 per cent. Conversely, the Nifty Bank index experienced the largest decline, falling by 0.7 per cent.

Investors in India will keep an eye out for inflation and wholesale inflation data for September, scheduled for release today. 

Retail inflation for September is anticipated to exceed the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target for the first time since July, according to a Reuters poll. 

That apart, HCL Tech and Reliance Industries are set to report their Q2 results today. 

On Monday, Asia-Pacific markets opened higher as investors evaluated a weekend press briefing from China and prepared for a series of economic data releases in the region. 

China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an indicated in the briefing that there was substantial room for increased deficit spending to bolster the economy.

Meanwhile, China faced deepening deflationary pressures in September, with consumer prices rising just 0.4 per cent year-on-year—the slowest rate in three months—and the producer price index falling by 2.8 per cent, marking its steepest decline in six months. Both figures fell short of economists’ expectations, who had anticipated a 0.6 per cent rise in CPI and a 2.5 per cent drop in PPI, according to a Reuters report.

On Monday, China is expected to release its September trade data, with exports forecasted to rise by 6 per cent, a slowdown from August’s 8.7 per cent growth, while imports are projected to increase by 0.9 per cent, compared to 0.5 per cent in August. 

Analysts are also looking forward to a busy week of economic data, including third-quarter GDP, September industrial output growth, retail sales, and unemployment figures.

Japan’s market was closed for a holiday today. 

Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was up 0.62 per cent and the CSI 300 was up 0.11 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.79 per cent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.5 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.46 per cent, and the small-cap Kosdaq fell by 0.43 per cent.

On Friday, global stocks rose, lifted by US bank earnings, and on track for a weekly gain while US Treasury yields were mostly lower after inflation and consumer confidence reports solidified expectations for the path of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US producer price index for final demand was unchanged in September, slightly below the forecast of economists polled by Reuters for a gain of 0.1 per cent. It followed an unrevised 0.2 per cent increase in August, indicating inflation continues to cool and giving the Fed leeway to continue cutting interest rates.

In the 12 months through September, the PPI increased 1.8 per cent versus the 1.6 per cent estimate.

On Thursday, the consumer price index turned out to be slightly higher than expected as goods costs increased.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 68.9 this month, compared with a final reading of 70.1 in September and below the 70.8 estimate as high prices discouraged shopping.

On Wall Street, US stocks advanced, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record highs, as bank shares jumped 4.21 per cent, its biggest daily percentage gain since May 2023, at the start of the quarterly earnings season. JP Morgan rose 4.44 per cent and Wells Fargo shot up 5.61 per cent.

S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to be 4.9 per cent, LSEG data showed, down slightly from 5.2 per cent at the start of October.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 409.74 points, or 0.97 per cent, to 42,863.86, the S&P 500 rose 34.98 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 5,815.03 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 60.89 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 18,342.94.

Gains were capped, however, by an 8.78 per cent tumble in Tesla shares as the electric vehicle maker promised much at its robotaxi event with few practical details.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 4.56 points, or 0.54 per cent, to 852.75 and was on track for its fourth weekly gain in five weeks. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index closed up 0.55 per cent as investors shifted their focus to China’s fiscal stimulus, corporate earnings seasons and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut next week.

Bets that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting have been choppy in recent sessions, and stand at 88.4 per cent, with markets pricing in a 11.6 per cent chance of no change in rates, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

US yields were choppy around the data as investors gauged the Fed’s rate path before heading lower. The benchmark US 10-year note yield 0.5 basis point to 4.089 per cent while the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, declined 5 basis points to 3.949 per cent.

The 10-year yield is up about 11 bps for the week, poised for its fourth straight weekly advance. The 2-year yield is nearly 7 bps on the week, on track for a second straight weekly climb.

In currency markets, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, edged up 0.05 per cent to 102.94.

Crude prices slipped, but secured a second straight weekly climb, as investors weighed the impact of hurricane damage on US demand against any broad supply disruption if Israel attacks Iranian oil sites.