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Former President Donald Trump’s path back to the White House grows more plausible by the day. That’s the indication, at least, from recent polling data that suggests his race against Vice President Kamala Harris is tightening and that he has the edge with a 2% national lead in the most recent Fox News poll.
Starting after her coronation as Democratic nominee, Harris has enjoyed a boost thanks to the “good vibes” a mostly friendly media made sure to cast around her. But as Election Day nears, even her media allies can’t shield her from the reality of public disillusionment with years of failed Democrat policies.
The Fox poll shows that America remains closely divided. Trump holds the lead nationally, while Harris maintains a narrow swing-state lead. The pollsters even delved into local data, looking at “swing counties” and finding that the candidates are tied 49-49 in those areas. This means that Trump will need every single Republican vote possible to win, along with lots of independents and even some disaffected Democrats.
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What’s bolstering Trump right now is a clear lead on the issues most important to American voters. Fox’s polling confirmed that the economy is far and away the issue that most voters say is driving their decision this year. Seventy percent of Americans said they felt negatively about the current state of the economy. When was the last time 70% of Americans agreed on anything?
Trump will need help in Congress if he wants to pass his agenda. FILE: Members talk on the floor of the House Chamber on the opening day of the 118th Congress on Tuesday, January 3, 2023, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington DC. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Trump beat Harris 53-45 among voters when asked who they most placed their trust in to handle the economy. Among the second most concerning issue for voters, immigration, Trump beat Harris by an even bigger margin of 57-42.
The results are clear: Trump is winning on the winning issues. If this trend holds, and he takes back the White House, he’ll have the chance to reward voters’ trust by tackling these tough problems right away. Voters will want to see him follow through on his plans to crack down on illegal border crossers and those who abuse our immigration system. They’ll want to see him enact his plans to fight inflation by bolstering American manufacturing, imposing tariffs on foreign goods, and ending taxes on tips (an idea so popular, Harris blatantly stole it).
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Even Trump’s recent visit to a McDonald’s, where he worked at the drive-through, shows he intuitively understands this. Rising fast food prices have aggravated Americans during the Biden years. Trump making the decision to show up and ground zero for voters’ inflation concerns shows he is taking the issue seriously.
But Trump won’t be able to fix it alone. He’ll need a Republican Congress that’s similarly committed to finding commonsense solutions to the issues that are important to such a vast swath of voters. Both the Senate and House majorities hang in the balance this November as well, and Republicans are wise to shore up support in down-ballot races, especially in suburban swing districts that are bellwethers of the national mood.
One thing is certain: to hold the House and possibly take the Senate in order to make the Trump agenda into a reality, Republicans will need to rely on swing-district members who often place pragmatism over politics. The Republicans who win in deep blue states – especially those whose own districts were won by Harris at the presidential level – are some of the most in-tune with our closely divided electorate. They know that their voters prefer Republican solutions, but their trust will have to be earned.
Take, for example, Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer of Oregon’s 5th District who is facing a tough challenger, but campaigning wisely by focusing on the economy, rather than wedge issues. Rep. Marc Molinaro, who flipped a district in blue New York, has quickly emerged as a key voice for sanity in internal House dynamics, such as the periodic spending fights that threaten to upend the Republican majority due to far-right theatrics.
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Trump recently traveled to deep-blue California to campaign for Rep. Ken Calvert, whose district Trump narrowly won in 2020. Calvert, a seasoned lawmaker with a record of bipartisan achievements, who is leading among Latino voters in his district in a sign of the increasingly diverse Republican coalition, declared at a rally that “Donald Trump is going to provide economic opportunities for American families across this great nation.” If he has a commonsense Congress with a Republican majority to back him, he has the chance to make great improvements to wallets and pocketbooks across this country.
The deeply divided Americans that lent their voices to Fox’s recent poll will not be impressed or satisfied by a Republican Congress that keeps falling into the trap of appeasing so-called “conservative” extremists. They show they’re willing to trust Donald Trump on the Main Street issues that matter most to them. Trump is working hard to win the White House and deliver for them, but Republicans will need to work no less hard to elect a commonsense Congress that can support the Trump agenda.
