But to become Austria’s new leader, he would need a coalition partner to command a majority in the lower house of parliament — and rivals have said they won’t work with Kickl in government.

The voter has spoken. Change is wanted in our country,” Freedom Party general secretary Michael Schnedlitz said, though he acknowledged that “we don’t have the final result yet.

People’s Party general secretary Christian Stocker conceded that we didn’t achieve first place but said his party had come back from lower poll ratings. And he reiterated Nehammer’s refusal to form a coalition with Kickl that was the case yesterday, and it is the case today and it will still be the case tomorrow.

More than 6.3 million people age 16 and over were eligible to vote for the new parliament in Austria, a European Union member that has a policy of military neutrality.

Kickl has achieved a turnaround since Austria’s last parliamentary election in 2019. In June, the Freedom Party narrowly won a nationwide vote for the first time in the European Parliament election, which also brought gains for other European far-right parties.

In 2019, its support slumped to 16.2 per cent after a scandal brought down a government in which it was the junior coalition partner. Then-vice chancellor and Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache resigned following the publication of a secretly recorded video in which he appeared to offer favours to a purported Russian investor.

The far right has tapped into voter frustration over high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic. It has also built on worries about migration.

In its election program, titled Fortress Austria, the Freedom Party calls for remigration of uninvited foreigners, for achieving a more homogeneous nation by tightly controlling borders and suspending the right to asylum via an emergency law.

The Freedom Party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, is highly critical of Western military aid to Ukraine and wants to bow out of the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defence project launched by Germany.

The leader of the Social Democrats, a party that led many of Austria’s post-World War II governments, has positioned himself as the polar opposite to Kickl. Andreas Babler has ruled out governing with the far right and labelled Kickl a threat to democracy.

While the Freedom Party has recovered, the popularity of Nehammer’s People’s Party, which currently leads a coalition government with the environmentalist Greens as junior partners, has declined since 2019.

During the election campaign, Nehammer portrayed his party, which has taken a tough line on immigration in recent years, as the strong centre that will guarantee stability amid multiple crises.

Under their leadership, Austria has experienced high inflation averaging 4.2 per cent over the past 12 months, surpassing the EU average.

The government also angered many Austrians in 2022 by becoming the first European country to introduce a coronavirus vaccine mandate, which was scrapped a few months later without ever being put into effect. And Nehammer is the third chancellor since the last election, taking office in 2021 after predecessor Sebastian Kurz the winner in 2019 quit politics amid a corruption investigation.

But the recent flooding caused by Storm Boris that hit Austria and other countries in Central Europe brought the environment back into the election debate and may have helped Nehammer slightly narrow the gap with the Freedom Party.

The People’s Party is the far right’s only way into government.

Nehammer has repeatedly excluded joining a government led by Kickl, describing him as a security risk for the country, but hasn’t ruled out a coalition with the Freedom Party in and of itself, which would imply Kickl renouncing a position in government.

The likelihood of Kickl agreeing to such a deal if he wins the election is very low, Peter Filzmaier, one of Austria’s leading political scientists, said before the election.

The most probable alternative would be an alliance between the People’s Party and the Social Democrats, with or without the liberal Neos.

First Published: Sep 29 2024 | 11:19 PM IST